As the polls predicted, Canada heads into a Liberal minority government. That means the UHNW landscape won’t just shift. It will swirl in uncertainty.
With a minority, no bill gets passed without horse-trading. For affluent families and family offices, this introduces a policy environment shaped less by clarity and more by compromise, with delayed legislation, unexpected concessions, and opaque deal-making clouding long-term planning. It’s a climate where naïve, passive capital becomes vulnerable, and thoughtful, proactive capital becomes powerful.
Watch the Small Print on Taxation
The Liberal platform’s proposed wealth taxes and aggressive approach to closing “loopholes” may not land in their original form, but don’t mistake that for relief. In a minority government, tax changes often emerge disguised or embedded in omnibus bills, tucked into backroom bargains, or used as negotiation tools to placate coalition partners.
For families of substantial wealth, this is not a time for a “wait and see” tax strategy. Static tax planning is somewhat obsolete. Structures must be made more dynamic and ready to adjust within fiscal years, not after them. Optimization around timing of realizations, jurisdictional exposure, and family enterprise planning will become key to preserving after-tax wealth.
And for families contemplating intergenerational transfers, expect the “death tax” conversation to re-emerge as a point of political currency.
Investment Opportunity Meets Risk
Green energy, infrastructure modernization, and climate-aligned tech remain marquee initiatives. But in a fragmented Parliament, execution will be messy. Progress will zigzag, and market reactions will often front-run political outcomes. Families will need to look beyond headlines and assess whether policy commitments are truly bankable or merely rhetorical.
Cross-border diversification will be critical. With the Canadian dollar already reacting to fiscal uncertainty, currency exposure management deserves fresh attention. Holding a mix of CAD, USD, and even other G10 currencies could help mitigate domestic policy whiplash.
Family offices may also revisit private markets with a more discerning lens. Deals tied to government incentives, particularly in green energy or housing, must be stress-tested against policy reversals, budgetary constraints, or political infighting.
The Growing Role of Philanthropy in the Private Sector
Legislative gridlock often creates a vacuum in social services, and that’s precisely where this government is heading. Expect visible cracks in healthcare delivery, mental health services, housing development, and Indigenous reconciliation efforts.
Affluent families have a unique opportunity not just to give, but to shape the civic agenda where the state falters. Strategic philanthropy, particularly in collaborative, systems-level efforts, can amplify impact while aligning with long-term legacy objectives.
Our View
As Sun Tzu reminds us in The Art of War, “In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity.” Uncertainty doesn’t favor the strongest. It favors the most adaptable. Families who anchor themselves to timeless principles, while remaining tactically flexible in execution, will endure and outperform. And remember that markets may hate confusion, but family capital, when deployed with clarity and courage, often finds its greatest edge in the fog.
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